ITV Racing Ideas & Traits

As we head into the second day (Thursday) on the Dante Competition at York we’ve one other prime afternoon of flat horse racing to sit up for. The ITV4 cameras are additionally on the Knavesmire once more to absorb the primary 5 races, together with the Dante Stakes (3:35) – a number one Epsom Derby trial.

Andy Newton is available with all of the ITV4 York races this Thursday with key tendencies and ideas.

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RELATED: York Races At present – See All Races at York At present: Betting, silks runners & riders

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York Horse Racing Ideas and Traits (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Paddy Energy ‘Making Flat Much less Flat’ Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4

13/13 – Had raced at York earlier than
12/13 – Didn’t win final day out
12/13 – Had gained not less than 4 instances earlier than
11/13 – Had run within the final 5 weeks
11/13 – Got here from a single-figure draw
11/13 – Completed within the prime 5 final day out
10/13 – Aged 6 or older
9/13 – Returned a double-figure value
7/13 – Returned between 8/1 and 16/1
7/13 – Favourites positioned
6/13 – Carried 8-10 or much less in weight
2/13 – Skilled by Tim Easterby (final 2 runnings)
1/13 – Profitable favourites
Copper Knight gained the race in 2019 and 2021
2021 Winner: Copper Knight (11/2 jfav)

The Mick Appleby runner – Raasel – is a fast-improving sprinter and he regarded to have a bit extra up his sleeve final time than the top profitable margin recommended. He’s fascinating and ought to be ending off properly, however 11 of the final 13 winners got here from a single-figure draw – he’s drawn 11.

Alligator Alley, Digital and Bedford Flyer can all go properly, whereas the busy High quality Wine has been working persistently of late and will hit the body once more. However COPPER KNIGHT @ 6/1 with William Hill has landed the final two runnings of this race appears to be like price sticking with.

Sure, he’s up 19lbs from final yr, however he progressed up the ranks once more final season and has been rated this excessive prior to now (104). Draw 7 is okay and a latest run at Musselburgh may have him prepared for this.

The opposite that ticks lots of the tendencies is JAWWAAL (e/w) @ 10/1 with William Hill. This Michael Dods 7 year-old is again from a break however was seventh on this race 12 months in the past and solely overwhelmed 3 lengths. He travelled properly that day however the draw (11) regarded to go towards him within the closing phases. He’s obtained a greater berth in 6 this time and can love the fast floor.

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2.25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4

17/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/17 – Positioned within the prime 4 final day out
14/17 – Gained over 1m2f earlier than
14/17 – Favourites positioned
13/17 – Priced 7/2 or shorter within the betting
11/17 – Having first run of the season
10/17 – Profitable favourites (together with 8 of final 13)
9/17 – Had gained not less than 4 instances earlier than
9/17 – Had raced at York earlier than
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket final day out
4/17 – Had gained at York earlier than
3/17 – Gained final day out
3/17 – Skilled by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
1/17 – Irish educated winners
2021 Winner: Queen Energy (6/4 fav)

This appears to be like set to to be a battle between Sir Michael Stoute, who has two main fancies – Midday Star and Ville De Grace, and the Irish – who ship over Thunder Kiss and Forbearance.

Of that bunch, Thunder Kiss is the top-rated within the subject and is a giant participant after a prime win at Cork final day out, however is but to race exterior G3 firm. Forbearance gained a Listed race right here final season, however the fear along with her is the drop again to 1m2f – all wins final season came to visit 1m4f+.

In order that leaves the Soute runners – Ville De Grace – and NOON STAR @ 10/3 with William Hill. The previous was shut second at HQ final day out and will likely be higher for that run, but it surely’s fascinating that Ryan Moore, who rode her that day prefers Midday Star.

This 4 year-old was a head Listed Stakes winner at Nottingham final time over 1m2f and has now gained 3 of her final 6 races. She was additionally runer up within the Musidora Stakes right here final season so the observe is okay, whereas Moore couldn’t be driving any higher in the meanwhile.

3.00 – Paddy Energy Hambleton Stakes (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4

16/16 – Rated between 96-105
15/16 – Had gained over a mile earlier than
14/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
13/16 – Favourites positioned within the prime 4
11/16 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
11/16 – Had raced within the final 6 weeks
10/16 – Got here from a single-figure draw
10/16 – Had gained not less than 4 instances earlier than
8/16 – Positioned final day out
7/16 – Aged 4 years-old
3/16 – Profitable favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
1/16 – Gained final day out
2021 Winner: Kynren (17/2)

With ALL of the final 16 winners rated between 96-105, then the highest 5 on the cardboard – Bless Him, Brunch, Isla Kai, Cruyff Flip and What’s The Story.

Of that lot, it’s arduous to disregard the Nigel Tinkler runner – ISLA KAI @ 5/1 with William Hill– who has solely had seven profession runs and gained 4 of them. He returned final months at Newmarket with a cracking 4th of 17 and may now be spot on for this.

Others to notice decrease down the weights are Hortzador, Redarna, La Trinidad, Lightening Firm and Trais Fluors, however CD winner – BRUNCH (e/w) @ 8/1 with William Hill – is the opposite choose. He was a neck runner-up on this 12 months in the past and appears arrange for one more large show after good runs within the Lincoln (eighth) and the G3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes final time at Newmarket.

3.35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4

17/19 – Winners that went onto run within the Epsom Derby (4 gained)
15/19 – Completed third or higher final day out
13/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter within the betting
13/19 – Had a earlier race that season
12/19 – Gained their earlier race
10/19 – Went onto be positioned within the Epsom Derby
5/19 – Had gained over 1m2f earlier than
4/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
4/19 – Profitable favourites
3/19 – Gained by coach Aidan O’Brien (gained it 4 instances in all)
3/19 – Gained by coach Sir Michael Stoute (gained it 6 instances in all)
3/19 – Gained by jockey Ryan Moore
3/19 – Skilled by John Gosden (3 of final 7 runnings)
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Skilled by Mark Johnston (2 of final 5)
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/19 – Had run at York earlier than
0/19 – Winners from stall 2
Simply 2 profitable favourites within the final 14 runnings
Golden Horn (2015) was the final Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
2021 Winner: Hurricane Lane (5/1)

The James Ferguson yard have a pleasant horse on his arms in El Bodegon, who is bound to be widespread when punters see that his final run in October was a 1 1/2 size beating of final Sunday’s straightforward winner of the Leopardstown Derby Trial – Stone Age.

Nevertheless, that win got here on very gentle floor and though that type has been given an enormous enhance this 3 year-old colt is but to race on floor faster than good-to-soft – that might be the priority.

We will’t ignore something coach Aidan O’Brien ship to put up in the meanwhile – he landed many of the large races at Chester final week and already holds a giant hand within the Epsom Derby betting market. He runs Bluegrass right here, with Ryan Moore driving. However he was solely third final day out at Leopardstown and has to this point been unplaced in each runs over 1m2f.

Masekela, for Andrew Balding, has a Derby entry and confirmed first rate type as a 2 year-old final season, however the fear for him and in addition Royal Partronage, who beat him at HQ final Sept, is getting this longer journey.

So, the 2 that look the almost certainly to battle this out are the Gosden runner- Magisterial and the Stoute-trained Desert Crown.

The once-raced Desert Crown is @ 6/1 with William Hill for the Epsom Derby and already has a tall status even after simply the one run and win. That got here at Nottingham final November, but it surely was an eye catching 5 1/2 size success. The small fear although is that got here on gentle floor and he’s additionally not had a run since – whereas, most of his major rivals have been on the observe within the final month or so.

We’ve additionally solely seen 2 profitable Dante Stakes favourites within the final 14 runnings, which might be a unfavourable for Desert Crown if he retains his place on the head of the market.

So, the choose is the Frankel colt – MAGISTERIAL @ 7/2 with William Hill. He will likely be widespread with Frankie Dettori additionally driving and he returned final month with a pleasant win at Leicester. He’s @ 25/1 with William Hill for the Epsom Derby – odds that can disappear if he can win this.

He’s clearly an bettering kind and with three profession runs is a good bit extra skilled than Desert Crown (1 run). He additionally regarded to have a bit up his sleeve final time at Leicester and though it is a large step up in grade he’s obtained highly effective connections that really feel he’s as much as the duty.

4.10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 5f ITV4

10/10 – Had gained over 5f or 6f prior to now
8/10 – Gained between 1-2 instances earlier than
8/10 – Positioned within the prime 5 final day out
7/10 – Ran not more than 6 instances
7/10 – Rated between 98-103
7/10 – Drawn in stall 1-5
7/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Positioned favourites
6/10 – Had run on the observe earlier than
5/10 – Gained final day out
3/10 – Profitable favourites
3/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2021 Winner: Winter Energy (5/1)

Boonie obtained as much as win by 3/4 of a size at Nottingham final day out and is simply up 4lbs for that right here. Khunan and the one CD winner within the subject – Venture Dante – will be thought of too.

Nevertheless, the Aidan O’Brien yard have a promising sprinter on their arms in KING OF BAVARIA @ 15/8 with William Hill, who was final seen working properly in a Listed race at Navan. Prioer to that he gained each begins and though the drop again to 5f won’t be completely ideally suited having stayed on properly the final day over 5 1/2f, he’s proven loads of velocity to deal with it.

Of the remaining, a saver on LAST CRUSADER (e/w) @ 10/1 with William Hill too with jockey Danny Tudhope having gained two of the final 4 runnings of this. He ran properly at Group stage final season so this drop right into a Listed race will assist and will likely be fitter for a return run at HQ final month.

William Hill Particular Supply – Enchanced odds and Flash odds to spice up costs in your horse racing picks. Plus, Additional Place races and one ‘Guess Increase’ to make use of each day on horse racing and Greatest Odds Assured costs. (Ts&C’s apply)

Notice: Odds are topic to vary

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York Horse Racing Occasions and Race Card: Thurs twelfth Might 2022

• 1:50 – Paddy Energy ‘Making Flat Much less Flat’ Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4
• 2:25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2½f ITV4
• 3:00 – Paddy Energy Hambleton Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV4
• 3:35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2½f ITV4
• 4:10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4
• 4:45 – Frank Whittle Partnership EBFstallions.com Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f RTV
• 5:20 – Fidomoney Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 2m½f RTV

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